{"id":12785,"date":"2014-08-01T11:52:31","date_gmt":"2014-08-01T15:52:31","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/?p=12785"},"modified":"2014-08-01T11:56:28","modified_gmt":"2014-08-01T15:56:28","slug":"poll-numbers-dont-always-tell-the-whole-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/?p=12785","title":{"rendered":"Poll numbers don’t always tell the whole story"},"content":{"rendered":"

Also: is it time to fire legislators too busy ‘on vacation’ to do their jobs?<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

By Mike McGann<\/strong>, Editor, The Times<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

\"TimesPoliticsUnusual\"<\/a>Ah, the sweet smell of late summer. Fruits ripening, corn growing, backyard grills fired up, maybe even a whiff of chlorine from the pool all in the air.<\/p>\n

Also floating in the air: polling data, much of which might leave folks scratching their heads a bit.<\/p>\n

You may have seen this week\u2019s CBS News\/You Gov poll suggesting that the gubernatorial battle of the Toms \u2014 Gov. Tom Corbett and Tom Wolf has closed to within nine points. In the sixth Congressional District, Democrat Manan Trivedi released an internal poll suggesting he trails Republican Ryan Costello by a mere five points.<\/p>\n

Shocking! Stunning! Game changers!<\/p>\n

Uh, nope.<\/p>\n

First off, when it comes to polling, single poll results that are in variance with the bulk of other polling are called \u201coutliers.\u201d These two would likely fall into that category.<\/p>\n

Trivedi\u2019s poll was an internal poll, one used by the campaign to measure where it stands.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, in my experience as a candidate and campaign manager, you almost always get some bias \u2014 usually unintentional \u2014 toward the candidate taking the poll. This is similar to the \u201chouse effect\u201d noted with some polling companies that tend to have a consistent \u201clean\u201d toward one party or the other.<\/p>\n

Similarly, Costello\u2019s internals show a 13-point race, I\u2019m told.<\/p>\n

So, best guess, right now, figure it to be a an 8-10 point race, which is about right based on the district, history, and the demographics of the Sixth. The two factors that will determine whether the polling opens or tightens will be money and national politics. The former matters in the expensive Philly TV market where commercials tend to define congressional candidates, for the good and bad. Costello has and will have a lot more than Trivedi.<\/p>\n

The latter, though, may well determine the final outcome, as events could drive different groups to the polls in numbers not well reflected by the \u201clikely voter\u201d model being used to parse the polling numbers.<\/p>\n

The Corbett-Wolf poll is another matter. There are a lot of questions about the validity of the You Gov polling model (and yes, I was one of the respondents) and how the self-selection issue is accounted for in the final numbers.<\/p>\n

And while I absolutely expect the numbers to tighten \u2014 and have said so for months \u2014 I would take these numbers with a grain of salt big enough to crush a Kia Soul (and no, that\u2019s not a cheap plug for the local \u201ccrazy\u201d Kia dealer, foolishly he doesn\u2019t advertise here, but for my daughter Janet who hates the boxy, hampster-infested cars with a deep, deep passion).<\/p>\n

But setting aside the fact that the numbers are as suspect as a Kardashian marriage, showing Corbett with 33% support and Wolf with 42%, is there any reason for Corbett or Republicans to get excited?<\/p>\n

Nope.<\/p>\n

Wolf\u2019s numbers have been driven down \u2014 thanks to TV ads and Internet ads suggesting Wolf doesn\u2019t pay taxes, doesn\u2019t believe there\u2019s a pension crisis, and a bevy of iffy to fictional claims \u2014 but we haven\u2019t seen much in the way of an increase in support numbers for Corbett.<\/p>\n

And yes, before Republicans blow a gasket: the claims that Corbett cut education funding by $1 billion are equally fictional, as state spending on education since Corbett took office is actually up marginally. The $1 billion was federal stimulus money \u2014 the smart districts used the extra cash on one-time expenses, not operations. Corbett had no way to replace the federal money when it dried up \u2014 so any blame falls on both local Republican Congress members and President Barack Obama, but not the governor.<\/p>\n

The CBS News\/You Gov poll, if taken as valid, mostly suggests that some voters have been pushed back into the undecided ranks \u2014 meaning those undecideds are about 25% of voters. In most places, undecideds tend to break for the challenger by a 2-1 margin, give or take, which would be good news for Wolf.<\/p>\n

But this is change-resistant Pennsylvania, which is notorious for not voting out incumbents. So, let\u2019s say 15 points of the undecided break for Corbett \u2014 some 60%, which is probably a wildly optimistic number \u2014 that still gives Wolf a 52-48 win in November. More realistically, those undecideds split evenly or slightly toward Wolf, which makes the final margin more like 55-45.<\/p>\n

And that assumes these numbers are right, which is a big leap. More likely, the race is even less close right now, meaning a 12- or 14-point final margin isn\u2019t unrealistic unless there is a major change in the dynamic of the race.<\/p>\n

And if the late polling suggests those sort of numbers, we could see a big hit on GOP turnout, rippling across congressional, state Senate and State Representative races, especially here in hard-fought Chester County.<\/p>\n

You can expect this drama to play out right in front of you \u2014 both sides acknowledge this: if Corbett loses Chester County, he stands no chance to win statewide, especially as it seems like right now, Wolf will win Philadelphia by giant margins, and should win in Delaware and Montgomery counties. Corbett will need numbers \u2014 and a clear win \u2014 in Chester and Bucks to stay in the governor\u2019s mansion.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

The state House of Representatives was supposed to come back into session Monday to take up a proposed $2 a pack tax on cigarettes in Philadelphia to help close a $93 million budget deficit. But, apparently, a number of house members decided their vacation time was more important.<\/p>\n

Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter said it would be difficult for city schools to even open without the additional funds \u2014 and the best case scenario would have 40 kids in a classroom and some 1,300 layoffs of staff.<\/p>\n

Let us set aside the sticky facts that the Philadelphia School District is being run by the state and has been for more than a decade and the state is directly responsible for any financial mess there \u2014 this isn\u2019t some local school board run amuck, the buck stops with the state legislature and the governor\u2019s mansion. But hey, inconvenient facts are so\u2026.well\u2026inconvenient.<\/p>\n

How about this though: Pennsylvania has some of the highest-paid legislators in the nation, who already basically work part time for full time pay.<\/p>\n

Unfortunately, some Republican legislators don\u2019t want to disrupt their vacations just to do their job, which is kind of pathetic.<\/p>\n

I\u2019d suggest a permanent vacation is in order for any legislator who balked at coming back into session Monday \u2014 folks, there has to be a fireable offense for these guys (if the pension mess, the midnight pay hike and the general disaster that is Pennsylvania isn\u2019t quite enough for you) and if blatantly refusing to do their jobs (and frankly, if they want to vote the tax down, fine, but do your bloody job) doesn\u2019t reach that threshold, what does?<\/p>\n

Nice.<\/p>\n

And while I think the situation with the Philadelphia schools is an embarrassment \u2014 yet another sign that Pennsylvania doesn\u2019t even aspire to third-world standards any more \u2014 worse, for those of us out here in suburbia: this is going to force litigation that will, mark my words, shred education funding funding for wealthy suburban districts.<\/p>\n

If the legislature can\u2019t deal with the Philadelphia situation \u2014 not to mention other urban districts around the state \u2014 the courts will. And to be blunt, rich suburban folks won\u2019t like the outcome, which may lead to some of your tax money going out of district, to provide \u201cequal access\u201d to education in poorer areas.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s happened in other states and it can and will happen here if legislators don\u2019t act, and act soon. The case is already in the process of being filed, so it\u2019s not an empty threat.<\/p>\n

The status quo is hanging by a thread \u2014 and if you think this is just some Philadelphia issue, you\u2019d be badly mistaken. You need to make sure your local legislator is equally aware of the stakes here and that he or she is ready to put away the sunscreen and get back to work in Harrisburg.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Also: is it time to fire legislators too busy ‘on vacation’ to do their jobs? By Mike McGann, Editor, The Times Ah, the sweet smell of late summer. Fruits ripening, corn growing, backyard grills fired up, maybe even a whiff of chlorine from the pool all in the air. Also floating in the air: polling […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12784,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3497,4],"tags":[3495,483,4027,557,5014,114,2606,18,4238],"class_list":["post-12785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-columns","category-featured","tag-election-2014","tag-gov-tom-corbett","tag-manan-trivedi","tag-philadelphia","tag-polling","tag-ryan-costello","tag-school-funding","tag-state-legislature","tag-tom-wolf"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12785"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12785\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/12784"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}