{"id":29507,"date":"2018-08-26T10:17:58","date_gmt":"2018-08-26T14:17:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/?p=29507"},"modified":"2018-08-26T10:18:01","modified_gmt":"2018-08-26T14:18:01","slug":"its-not-even-labor-day-and-the-voters-are-exhausted","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/?p=29507","title":{"rendered":"It’s not even Labor Day and the voters are exhausted"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

I’m so tired, I haven’t slept a wink<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

I’m so tired, my mind is on the blink<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

I wonder should I get up and fix myself a drink<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u2014 \u201cI\u2019m So Tired\u201d The Beatles.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

By Mike McGann<\/strong>, Editor, The Times<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>In a week where the headlines came fast and furious, which few enjoyed unless they were playing Criminal Republican Bingo, it seems like the voting public is dividing into three groups: die-hard Trump supporters, die-hard Donald Trump opponents and a group in the middle which is just tired of the chaos, punditry and stupidity.<\/span><\/p>\n

While it might seem momentous that former Trump Campaign Chair Paul Manafort was convicted on eight of 18 counts of tax evasion and bank fraud and former Trump attorney Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to eight counts of bank fraud and campaign finance violations (the latter allegedly at the direction of Trump), in a lot of ways, the average voter may well process it as just another week in the chaotic Trump era.<\/span><\/p>\n

The suspicion here is that a pretty big group of voters is just tired of it all \u2014and that they will have the biggest impact on Election Day 2018.<\/span><\/p>\n

Back in the late 1990s, there was a term \u201cClinton Fatigue\u201d \u2014 folks mostly liked President Bill Clinton, but were exhausted by the drama caused by his alleged serial infidelity. Why \u2014 then and now \u2014 anyone beyond his wife much cared remains lost on me, until Clinton appeared to have perjured himself, which of course then became a legitimate issue.<\/span><\/p>\n

Fast-forward 20 years and I\u2019m not sure you can even call it Trump Fatigue, maybe it is Trump Exhaustion. It is way beyond that. From hush money to porn stars and Playboy Playmates \u2014 again, lots o\u2019 infidelity, which again should be between Trump and his wife \u2014 but, now the specter of obstruction of justice, Russian interference in the election (with the possible help and cooperation of Trump and\/or his campaign). And for fun, throw in corruption charges against two sitting GOP Congressmen \u2014 Chris Collins of New York and Duncan Hunter of California \u2014 and it\u2019s enough to make any sane person yell \u201cCalgon, take me away!\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

So, with the election a bit more than two months away, it looks like voters are split into those three groups. <\/span><\/p>\n

The pro-Trump voters are pretty much locked in no matter what the headlines are (and many don\u2019t even see the relevant headlines \u2014 Fox News Channel, between dubious gold investment and largely ripoff reverse mortgage ads, is ignoring much of the Manafort\/Cohen news and focusing on a murder in Iowa, allegedly by an illegal immigrant.)<\/span><\/p>\n

The anti-Trump voters are basically in \u201chell, no\u201d mode \u2014 pushing for impeachment, tar and feathering and so on.<\/span><\/p>\n

That leaves a middle group, not tuned to cable TV 24\/7, aware and kind of embarrassed at the spectacle, but increasingly exhausted by the daily headlines, the screaming talking heads and blurring of truth and reality.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the end, it is this group, seeking to \u201cmake it go away\u201d who will decide not just the Congressional elections, but a ton of local state legislative elections. How they vote \u2014 or don\u2019t \u2014 to make it go away will be telling.<\/span><\/p>\n

From here, it seems likely that Democrats and most independents in Chester County will vote to send a message: knock it off. And they\u2019ll do that by voting against Republicans. Long-time Republicans who find themselves uneasy at best with Trump and his drama \u2014 not to mention many departures from GOP orthodoxy \u2014 may well choose to just stay home. A new NBC\/Marist poll (more on that below) seems to confirm that thinking.<\/span><\/p>\n

Using 2017 as a guideline, there could be a wipeout for Republicans in Chester County, as long as Democrats play it smart. <\/span><\/p>\n

Smart means focusing on talking up health care and the tax cut \u2014 policy areas were Republicans are deeply vulnerable \u2014 and going no further than suggesting that they might be a check on GOP excesses. While talking impeachment might be red meat to the Democratic base, it would promise more chaos, not less, and turn off voters in the middle.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Democrats face the burden of basically having to shut up and let Republicans immolate themselves, local Republicans face an almost impossible messaging situation.<\/span><\/p>\n

In Chester County, where Trump lost by nearly 10 points in 2016, stapling one\u2019s self to the president is not a sure-fire way to ensure support by the party’s rank and file. At the same time, distancing yourself \u2014 while potentially attracting independents and persuadable Democrats \u2014 would mean alienating the right-wing, Trump can do no wrong side of the party. <\/span><\/p>\n

Faced with this impossible messaging situation, most GOP incumbents seem to be keeping quiet on Trump and national politics, focusing on state issues and\/or showing their bipartisan bonafides. The problem is that, with GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott Wagner acting more and more like a mini-Trump (see below), it is going to be increasingly hard to maintain that distance.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Democrats can manage to seem calm, issue-focused and well, grown up \u2014 granted a challenge at times \u2014 they should find themselves in a very good position on Election Day. <\/span><\/p>\n

But, the temptation to say too much or the wrong thing could backfire. <\/span><\/p>\n

Unlike Republicans, Democrats have much less to worry about from their left flank \u2014 angry left-wingers (a frequent no-show in off year elections) are going to vote and vote against Republicans to signal their fury with Trump. There\u2019s no need to play to them \u2014 Democrats need to lock in moderate Democrats, independents and moderate Republicans who are frustrated with their own party. Common sense proposals, a willingness to work across the aisle and a desire to be a \u201ccheck\u201d on extreme politics should be enough to win the day.<\/span><\/p>\n

***<\/span><\/p>\n

In a week where we found out \u201ctruth isn\u2019t truth,\u201d a candidate for governor asked for help by the Russians to hack the election (we think he was joking), refused to release his tax records and said he\u2019d consider signing a bill ending gay marriage in state, despite U.S. Supreme Court rulings to the converse (we don\u2019t think he was joking).<\/span><\/p>\n

So Republican gubernatorial candidate Scott Wagner asked Russia for help in hacking the 2018 election in Pennsylvania and seeking assistance from Paul Manafort, the former Trump campaign chair currently on trial over bank fraud and related charges.<\/span><\/p>\n

At a campaign event in Wyomissing a week ago Friday, Wagner was recorded saying, \u201cBy the way, the Russians are going to help me with Tom Wolf. If I have to use Paul Manafort, I will.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a link to listen for yourself \u2014 it is muffled: https:\/\/youtu.be\/Ll0uHvyuhKY<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Look, I get that he was joking. Aside from not being very damn funny, it is clear that Russian government operatives are actively seeking to interfere \u2014 again \u2014 in our elections, based on various credible reports, including new ones from Microsoft and Facebook just this week. And while Republicans seem smug that it has been mostly Democrats targeted, they should look closer: Republicans were targeted during the 2016 primaries and anti-Trump Republican organizations \u2014 as revealed by Microsoft Tuesday \u2014 have recently come under attack.<\/span><\/p>\n

Maybe it is politically incorrect to say it, but this is the truth: the Russians very likely sabotaged Republican presidential candidates such as Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, helping Trump to win the GOP primary. Were there other factors? Obviously, but if the Russians didn\u2019t interfere, we\u2019d likely be talking about President Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio, right now.<\/span><\/p>\n

And to be clear: Hillary Clinton ran a terrible campaign. But if the Russians don\u2019t interfere, instead of Trump, we\u2019re talking about how badly her administration is going and about the coming Red Wave \u2014 meaning more Congressional investigations and deep, likely losses for Democrats this fall.<\/span><\/p>\n

We need to be clear on this: the Russian government\u2019s efforts changed outcomes in our elections. People seem to want to shy away from saying this outright, but the truth is the truth, Rudolph Guiliani notwithstanding.<\/span><\/p>\n

And it will happen again \u2014 and maybe next time, it will be Republicans who are taken down. It is not a joke: this was literally an act of war against the United States by a hostile power, an attempt to sew chaos and disrupt our democracy. In many ways, it is a worse and more corrosive event than 9\/11.<\/span><\/p>\n

We. Were. Attacked. And remain under attack.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, no, joking about it is even slightly funny or appropriate. It does show exceptionally poor judgment, however.<\/span><\/p>\n

But 2018, being 2018, that wasn\u2019t Wagner\u2019s only head-shaking comment of the week, which his campaign back tracked on within hours.<\/span><\/p>\n

At a town hall meeting in Erie, Wagner said he would consider signing a hypothetical bill that would ban gay marriage in the commonwealth if elected governor. The next morning, his campaign spokesman Andrew Romeo walked it back and said Wagner was caught off guard \u2014 and would veto any bill that came to his desk prohibiting same-sex marriage.<\/span><\/p>\n

And again, another case where Wagner shows he\u2019s not ready for prime time. Candidates for State Representative, let alone governor, should be prepped for their answer on this issue (plus a handful of others from abortion to eliminating property taxes) which is absolutely, positively going to come up in public forums.<\/span><\/p>\n

At this point, one must conclude either that Wagner ignores his staff or hired staff incapable of doing basic level candidate prep work. Either way, Wagner is making things way too easy on Gov. Tom Wolf, who basically just has to avoid running anyone over in his Jeep to sail to easy victory this fall.<\/span><\/p>\n

***<\/span><\/p>\n

There\u2019s polling and there\u2019s polling.<\/span><\/p>\n

Republicans fell all over themselves celebrating a poll from the Commonwealth Leaders Fund, suggesting that Wagner was close with Wolf and U.S. Senate GOP candidate Lou Barletta was in striking distance of U.S. Sen. Bob Casey Jr. Commonwealth Leaders Fund is a fairly new political action committee \u2014 one of its founders is Chester County\u2019s own Colin Hanna, insert your own punchline here. <\/span><\/p>\n

Yeah. As someone who has done some polling, this thing is a hot mess. Its sample is bizarre \u2014 vastly overweighting conservatives \u2014 and what appears to be a flawed likely voter model, including one deeply skewed toward voters over age 65 (a possible selection error from demon dialing landlines \u2014 but between the lack of info on CLF\u2019s Website, which has ads, bizarrely, and the lack of methodology listed (no raw numbers, likely voter model explanation) \u2014 it\u2019s hard to tell.<\/span><\/p>\n

The poll shows Trump with a plus-8 approval rating, which is an immediate red flag. The new NBC\/Marist poll (taken roughly at the same time) shows Trump down 14 points, 52-38 among registered voters in approval rating (I\u2019ll note the NBC\/Marist poll may also have a selection error, it uses only mobile phones for its polling, which tends to cut out older demographics).<\/span><\/p>\n

So, one can attribute some issues to modeling and sampling.<\/span><\/p>\n

But\u2026there\u2019s something fishy in the numbers as presented. Wolf is shown as having a plus-11 favorability rating in the NBC\/Marist poll and a plus-10 favorability rating in the CLF poll. Yet, the NBC\/Marist poll (which largely tracks with the polling averages of the last three months) shows Wolf leading Wagner by 14, 54-40. The CLF poll shows Wolf leading Wagner 46-43. To be blunt, those numbers do not compute \u2014 if Wolf\u2019s favorables are similar in both polls, it makes little sense that the horserace number would be so different.<\/span><\/p>\n

CLF has never polled before \u2014 and frankly is a conservative PAC with a mission to influence the race, not impartially measure it \u2014 so I think you may have to treat this poll as an outlier, if not entirely disregard it.<\/span><\/p>\n

***<\/span><\/p>\n

The tributes for Sen. John S. McCain, who died last night after a rugged fight against brain cancer, are coming in from all corners, and deservedly so. While McCain could be a more traditional politician at times, he showed more courage than many in recent years. He was a bright light, a patriot and will be sorely missed in our country.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I’m so tired, I haven’t slept a wink I’m so tired, my mind is on the blink I wonder should I get up and fix myself a drink \u2014 \u201cI\u2019m So Tired\u201d The Beatles. By Mike McGann, Editor, The Times In a week where the headlines came fast and furious, which few enjoyed unless they […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":29509,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[6900,6518,10566,10565,10564,504,5014,10563],"class_list":["post-29507","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-opinion","tag-donald-trump","tag-featured","tag-john-s-mccain","tag-michael-cohen","tag-paul-manafort","tag-politics","tag-polling","tag-robert-mueller"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29507","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=29507"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29507\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":29508,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/29507\/revisions\/29508"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/29509"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=29507"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=29507"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/kennetttimes.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=29507"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}